After seven megacities, who can advance to the eighth place?
There is an impressive line in the TV series Nothing But Thirty: "This city is full of dreams and temptations."
For ordinary people in big cities, the most intuitive factors to evaluate the happiness of a city are income, resources and urban public services. One fact that cannot be ignored is that these factors are often highly positively related to the size and energy level of a city, that is, the bigger the city, the higher the income of residents, the more resources and opportunities, and the more convenient life.
Perhaps this is why many people yearn for big cities. Recently, the "2020 China Census by County" compiled by the Office of the Leading Group for the Seventh National Census in the State Council shows that there are currently 105 big cities in China, including 7 megacities, 14 megacities, 14 type I megacities and 70 type II megacities.
Data source: 2020 China Census Data by County.
It is worth noting that there are only seven megacities at the top of the pyramid, namely Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Chongqing, Guangzhou, Chengdu and Tianjin. And who will be the next megacity is particularly interesting.
Key factors of urban population size and rating
Measuring the size of a city is nothing more than two key indicators, population and area. However, the larger the population and the larger the area of a city, it does not mean that it can be ranked as a super-large or mega-city.
In the central and western regions of China, especially in the northwest and southwest, some prefecture-level cities are very large, and some of them are even equivalent to a coastal province. However, due to insufficient population and relative backwardness in economy and urban infrastructure, there is still a big gap from the concept of mega-cities and mega-cities.
In some economically developed areas, although some cities give people the impression that they are bustling and crowded, they have not been selected, such as Suzhou, Xiamen, Fuzhou and Ningbo, which are popular metropolises, and they have not been selected as megacities. The reason is simple. To measure whether a city is super-large, super-large or other types, it mainly depends on the urban population, not the permanent population of the city.
According to the relevant classification standards in the Notice on Adjusting the Classification Standards of Urban Scale issued by the State Council in 2014, cities are divided into five categories and seven grades according to the number of permanent residents in urban areas: cities with a permanent population of more than 10 million are megacities, and 5 million to 10 million are megacities, while 3 million to 5 million I-type cities and 1 million to 3 million II-type cities are also called megacities.
The second mega-cities are Wuhan, Dongguan, Xi ‘an, Hangzhou, Foshan, Nanjing, Shenyang, Qingdao, Jinan, Changsha, Harbin, Zhengzhou, Kunming and Dalian. Most of the permanent residents in these cities have exceeded 10 million, and Zhengzhou, the highest city, has reached 12.6 million. However, due to the large rural population and county population in these cities, the urban population is still between 5 million and 10 million.
Take Suzhou as an example. In 2021, it ranked sixth in the country with a GDP of 2.27 trillion yuan, with a permanent population of nearly 13 million, but the urban population was only about 4 million. The reason behind this is that Suzhou’s counties and even towns are very developed, with a large population. For example, Kunshan, a county-level city, has a GDP of 474.81 billion yuan and a population of over 2 million in 2021. So that the population of Suzhou city is counted, but it seems to have a small proportion.
In addition, there are some cities with relatively developed economy and society, which are small in size and belong to "short and pithy". For example, Xiamen, as a sub-provincial city, is considered qualified in terms of administrative level, reputation and per capita GDP, but Xiamen has the smallest land area among the first-and second-tier cities in China, with only 1,700.61 square kilometers and a permanent population of only 5.28 million.
Therefore, for this list, we can’t be too "based on this", and the size of the city does not lie in its area and population.
Popular candidate cities: Wuhan, Dongguan and Xi ‘an.
Among the 14 mega-cities, Wuhan (9.953 million), Dongguan (9.5576 million) and Xi ‘an (9.2837 million) are the top three cities with an urban population of over 9 million. In other words, the next mega-city is likely to be born among these three cities.
Judging from the current population of these three cities, Wuhan is only 47,000 people away from the threshold of 10 million megacities. If there are no accidents, Wuhan will become the next megacity.
Although according to the data of the Seventh Five-Year Plan, the resident population of Wuhan is 12.3265 million, which is less than that of Zhengzhou’s 12.6006 million. The total population of Wuhan ranks second in central China and eleventh in China. However, the position of "the most populous city in central China" was replaced by Zhengzhou, largely because of the impact of the epidemic.
In fact, the permanent population and urban population in Wuhan are likely to be underestimated. According to the Statistical Bulletin of Wuhan National Economic and Social Development in 2021, the permanent population of Wuhan reached 13,648,900 at the end of 2021, an increase of 1,201,200 over the end of last year. The annual increment of more than one million shows that the permanent population of Wuhan has begun to return sharply, and it is showing a blowout trend.
In addition, 1.73 million young people have chosen to stay in Wuhan since the implementation of the "Million College Students Studying in China for Entrepreneurship and Employment Project" in Wuhan in 2017. According to public data, in 2021 alone, there were 345,000 college students studying in Wuhan, among whom the number of fresh graduates studying in Han universities increased by 9.4% compared with 2020.
In addition to Wuhan, Dongguan, with the second largest population in megacities, is also a strong contender for megacities. At present, the built-up area of Dongguan has reached 1,194.31 square kilometers, which has reached the level of a megacity. In terms of the key indicator of urban population, in 2021, the permanent population of Dongguan reached 10.4667 million, breaking through the 10 million mark for the first time. Among them, the urban population reached 9,557,600.
Judging from the urbanization rate (urban population/total population), the urbanization level of Dongguan has reached 91%, which is the highest among the three cities.
Besides, Dongguan is still a very young city, with only 5.47% of the population over 60 years old. In recent years, the attraction of Dongguan has been continuously enhanced. According to the report released by relevant institutions, the talent attraction index of Dongguan ranked 16th among 100 cities in 2022, up 7 places from last year’s national ranking.
Following Wuhan and Dongguan, the urban population of Xi ‘an also exceeds 9 million, but it is nearly 800,000 people short of the threshold of 10 million. In 2021, the number of permanent residents in Xi ‘an will increase by 210,100. Even if these incremental populations are all urban population, it is still difficult for Xi ‘an to exceed 10 million in a short time.
Urban energy level is related to resource allocation, but the purpose is always people.
It is said that population is an important indicator reflecting the attractiveness, vitality and strength of a city. Under the background of urbanization in China, whoever has more population will win the initiative in the new round of urban competition.
Correspondingly, the promotion of urban energy level not only means that the attractiveness of the city is strengthened, but also means that more resources can be obtained.
Taking the urban planning and construction of subway as an example, according to the standards issued by the relevant state departments before, the application for subway needs to meet three conditions: the general budget revenue of local finance is above 10 billion yuan, the gross domestic product is above 100 billion yuan, and the urban population is above 3 million people.
It is not difficult to find that the requirement of applying for the subway for urban population is based on the urban population. It is also easy to understand that only when the urban population is large enough, the actual utilization rate of the subway will be high, the per capita construction and operation costs will not be so great, and the social benefits will be greater.
Not only the subway, but also from the efficiency of economic development, the higher the urban energy level is, the better the labor productivity is, and the greater the urban resource utilization efficiency is. Just like the innovation resources in the United States are concentrated in the metropolitan areas such as Silicon Valley, Los Angeles and new york, this is a universal law that is applicable all over the world.
Of course, once again, to measure the size of a city, we can’t just look at the population, and we can’t do without the comprehensive strength of economy, science and technology, trade, education, transportation, medical care and other fields. Those cities that have yet to be advanced need to "choose the good ones and follow them" in comparison with the top cities to comprehensively improve their soft and hard strength.
The size of the city, in the final analysis, should be implemented in the vital interests and actual feelings of every citizen. Let the citizens benefit from the development of the city, and have sufficient conditions to pursue the lofty ideals of life and run a happy family life. This is the pride of a city.
Poster design Zhou Huan