Grasp the general trend of international trade development and accelerate the construction of a strong trade country

　　General Secretary of the Supreme Leader pointed out in the Party’s Report to the 20th CPC National Congress: "Promote the optimization and upgrading of goods trade, innovate the development mechanism of service trade, develop digital trade, and accelerate the construction of a trade power." With the development of global economic integration, the penetration of digital technology into trade, the rise of developing countries and the popularization of high-standard international economic and trade rules, international trade has shown a new trend of generalization, digitalization, greening, integration, service, re-globalization and security. Standing at the new starting point of the development of human society in the digital age and facing the new goal of building a socialist modern power in an all-round way, the construction of a trade power should fully understand and grasp the general trend of international trade development, make precise policies on the new track of international trade competition, and strive to enhance the innovation, competitiveness, radiation, influence and security of China’s trade.

　　First, grasp the general trend of universal development of international trade subjects, optimize the business environment of enterprises, and establish a cooperation platform for large, medium and small enterprises

　　In recent years, with the deepening of the division of global value chain and the penetration of digital technology into trade, small and medium-sized enterprises have entered the international market by participating in the division of global value chain and cross-border electronic commerce, becoming a new force in international trade, and the main body of international trade has shown a new trend of universal development.

　　An important symbol of a trading power is that trade has great radiation and influence on economic growth, people’s well-being and employment. The participation of small and medium-sized enterprises in cross-border electronic commerce and global value chains is conducive to meeting diversified international demands, encouraging enterprises to innovate, improving enterprise productivity and income, expanding employment and achieving inclusive growth. At present, private enterprises have accounted for half of China’s foreign trade import and export. In 2022, private enterprises accounted for 50.9% of the total import and export value and contributed 80.8% to foreign trade growth. Grasping the general trend of general development of trade subjects and enhancing the radiation and influence of China’s foreign trade, we should optimize the business environment of enterprises, fully implement the Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Promoting the Development and Growth of Private Economy, optimize the development environment of private economy, increase policy support for private economy, accelerate the cultivation of foreign trade business subjects, and strive to promote the high-quality development of private economy; It is necessary to establish a cooperation platform for large, medium and small enterprises, provide a public trading platform, an innovation platform and an industrial chain and supply chain cooperation platform for small and medium enterprises, enhance the digitalization, innovation and management capabilities of small and medium enterprises, promote small and medium enterprises to expand direct exports through cross-border e-commerce, and drive small and medium enterprises to participate in the global value chain by providing intermediate products for large enterprises, expand indirect exports and create jobs; It is necessary to strengthen international cooperation, attach great importance to SME clauses in bilateral, regional and cross-regional trade negotiations, reduce non-tariff barriers affecting the export of SMEs, and promote international cooperation and market development of SMEs.

　　Second, grasp the digital and green development trend of international trade objects, deepen international trade innovation, and promote the digital and green transformation of trade.

　　Digital technology has changed the trade object, trade mode and trade scale, purchased products and services by digital ordering and digital delivery, and promoted the development of digital trade. Since 2005, the export of digital delivery services has more than tripled, far exceeding the growth rate of trade in goods and other services. In 2019, global e-commerce sales jumped to 26.7 trillion US dollars, equivalent to 30% of the global GDP. At the same time, the higher greenhouse gas emissions caused by the production, transportation, distribution and consumption of traded products have spawned new low-carbon trade regulations such as carbon tariffs, carbon labels, carbon certification and carbon footprints, and also promoted the development of green trade with environmental products and services as trading objects. According to World Trade Organization data, as of 2018, carbon dioxide emissions related to international exports of goods and services accounted for 30% of global carbon emissions. Countries seize the new track of digital economy development, meet the new challenges of climate change, and promote sustainable economic development. Digitalization and greening of international trade objects have become the new trend of international trade development in the future.

　　General Secretary of the Supreme Leader pointed out that in today’s era, digital technology and digital economy are the opportunities for the world’s scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, and they are the key areas of a new round of international competition. We must seize the opportunities and seize the commanding heights of future development. Innovation is the key to building a powerful trading country, and innovation determines the competitiveness and influence of international trade. To occupy the commanding heights of international trade competition in the future, China should focus on deepening international trade innovation. To reshape the digital supply chain as the core and promote the digital transformation of trade, we should formulate trade and investment policies aimed at promoting technological innovation of enterprises and cultivate innovative subjects; Around the establishment of a new digital supply chain ecosystem, promote the digital transformation of traditional foreign trade enterprises and service enterprises; Use digital tools to promote the innovation of supervision mode, establish a digital public service platform through internet plus’s supervision, promote cross-departmental, cross-level and cross-regional collaborative supervision, and form a multi-governance system with the participation of government, platform, enterprises, industry organizations and the public. We should improve the green trade system, accelerate the green transformation, coordinate technology policy, trade policy, investment policy, environmental policy and ecological security policy, establish a green trade statistics system, a green low-carbon trade standard and certification system, and an ecological environment risk prevention mechanism to improve the green trade system; Reduce tariff and non-tariff barriers to environmental products and services and expand imports of environmental technologies and services. Strengthen international cooperation and actively participate in the negotiation of global digital trade and green trade rules. As a big digital trade country, China should strengthen multi-level international cooperation and benchmark the new rules of the World Trade Organization.Timely revision and improvement of laws that adapt to the development of digital economy and society; Accelerate the negotiation of the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement and the Digital Economy Partnership Agreement, and expand international cooperation in the digital economy under the framework of regional and cross-regional trade agreements. As a big green trade country, China should actively set issues in multilateral trade negotiations and actively participate in the formulation of international rules, standards and management of green trade; Give priority to the inclusion of environmental provisions in bilateral and regional trade and investment negotiations and reduce tariff and non-tariff barriers; Create a professional platform for international cooperation in green trade development and promote international transactions in green technologies, products and services.

　　Third, grasp the general trend of service-oriented development of international trade structure, promote industrial integration and development, and enhance international competitiveness with digital empowerment and high-level opening up.

　　For a long time, the proportion of service trade in international trade has remained above 20%. In recent years, the development of digital technology has broken through the restriction of non-tradable services. With the liberalization of global service trade, the growth rate of service trade exceeds that of goods trade. The World Trade Organization predicts that according to the traditional trade statistics, the proportion of service trade in international trade will increase from 18% in 1995 to 25% in 2030, and it may reach 30% in 2040. According to the added value statistics, the added value of services in international trade in goods and services accounts for nearly half. Service-oriented international trade structure will become the general trend of trade development.

　　The essence of a trading power is that the industry has strong international competitiveness. Service industry and service trade are the shortcomings of China’s economic development. In 2022, service trade accounted for 12.3% of China’s total foreign trade, far below the world average (21.1%). The service trade has a long-term deficit, and the international competitiveness of most industries is weak. The management system and mechanism of service trade need to be improved urgently, which has become an obstacle to the construction of a strong trading country. To enhance the international competitiveness of China’s service trade, we should strengthen the new understanding of service value-added, promote the integrated development of service trade with modern service industry, high-end manufacturing industry and modern agriculture, accelerate the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure and enhance trade income; It is necessary to expand the service industry’s opening to the outside world, seize the development opportunity of global service trade liberalization, steadily expand the institutional opening to international economic and trade rules, improve the negative list management system of cross-border service trade, expand the opening to the outside world of telecommunications, tourism, law, vocational examinations and other service fields, and attract high-end service elements to gather in China; It is necessary to promote digital transformation, seize the new opportunity of service tradeability brought by digital globalization, accelerate the transformation of production relations adapted to the development of digital technology, promote institutional innovation around digital transformation, establish and improve the legal system, facilitation system and supervision system to promote the development of service trade, accelerate the cultivation of new digital kinetic energy of service trade, and realize the leap-forward development of service trade.

　　Fourth, grasp the general trend of the re-globalization of the international trade market structure, build the "Belt and Road" with high quality, and build a global development community.

　　After World War II, developed countries dominated the international market for a long time with their unique technological advantages, industrial advantages and monopoly advantages. Since the 1980s, developing countries, represented by China, have risen in groups. The proportion of developing economies in world output has increased from 24% to over 40%, from less than 1/3 to nearly 1/2 of the total trade in goods, and from 1/4 to 1/3 of the total trade in services. In the past decade, the contribution rate of BRICS countries to world economic growth has exceeded 50%, making it an important engine of world economic growth. General Secretary of the Supreme Leader pointed out that in today’s world, people of all countries are a community of shared destiny, and markets, funds, resources, information and talents are highly globalized. Only when the world develops can countries develop; Only when countries develop can the world develop. At present, the BRICS countries have expanded from five to eleven countries, and the African Union has joined the G20 to build the Belt and Road Initiative for ten years, which has attracted more than three-quarters of countries and 32 international organizations. The group rise of developing countries will continue to be a force to promote world economic growth. The World Trade Organization predicts that by 2040, the share of developing countries in service trade will increase from 35% to nearly 40%, and its share in total trade will exceed 50%. Unilateralism, hegemonism and protectionism cannot stop the trend of globalization, and the re-globalization of the international trade market structure is unstoppable.

　　An important symbol of a trading power is that a country’s trade has great radiation and influence on world economic growth, sustainable development and employment. Grasp the general trend of the re-globalization of the international trade market structure, build a global development community, and enhance the radiation and influence of China’s trade. We should speed up the implementation of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, practice global development initiatives, focus on key areas such as green development, new industrialization, and digital economy, strengthen cooperation in poverty alleviation, education, and health, build a global development community, and create a development pattern of balanced benefits, coordination, tolerance, win-win cooperation, and common prosperity; It is necessary to jointly build the "Belt and Road" with high quality, aim at high standards, sustainability and benefiting people’s lives, adhere to the direction of high-quality and high-standard cooperation, and take poverty alleviation, food security, education and health, development financing, green development, industrialization, digital economy and interconnection as key areas of cooperation, so that developing countries can better integrate into the international division of labor, share the fruits of economic globalization, and strive to achieve a higher level of cooperation and higher input efficiency. It is necessary to strengthen South-South cooperation, give full play to the role of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, an important platform for South-South cooperation, implement the outcome of the 2023 China-Africa Leaders’ Dialogue, practice the Initiative of Supporting Africa’s Industrialization, steadily implement the China Plan for Helping Africa’s Agricultural Modernization and the China-Africa Cooperation Plan for Talent Training, promote Africa’s integration and modernization, and realize the common prosperity and sustainable development of the Chinese and African people.

　　5. Grasp the general trend of universal development of high-standard international economic and trade rules, and comprehensively deepen reform and expand opening up to high-standard international economic and trade rules.

　　Regional and cross-regional negotiations such as the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement have reconstructed high-standard international economic and trade rules, triggering the domestication of international economic and trade rules; The negative list management of service trade has entered the trans-regional partnership agreements such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement from the regional trade agreement of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which has led to the trans-regional economic and trade rules. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement is by far the largest free trade agreement in the world, with its total population, economic scale and total trade volume accounting for 1/3 of the global total. The Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement involves a population of more than 500 million. After Britain’s accession, the trade scale exceeds that of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, affecting Eurasia, and the trend of universality of high-standard international economic and trade rules is taking shape.

　　General Secretary of the Supreme Leader pointed out that we should focus on promoting high-level opening to the outside world, continue to comprehensively deepen reform, and steadily expand institutional opening such as rules, regulations, management and standards. International economic and trade rules determine the content and scale of trade, the competitiveness, radiation and influence of trade and the future of trade. In order to conform to the general trend of the universality of contemporary high-standard international economic and trade rules and enhance the competitiveness, radiation and influence of China’s foreign trade, it is necessary to raise the standard international economic and trade rules, promote reform by opening up to the outside world, seize the development opportunity of domestication of international economic and trade rules, deepen reform in an all-round way, and give play to the driving force of trade on domestic economic reform, the traction of economic growth and the radiation of sustainable development; We should participate in the negotiation of high-standard international economic and trade rules, promote cooperation through openness, enhance the international competitiveness of China’s foreign trade in a wider range, in a wider field and in a deeper level of international cooperation, give play to the traction of China’s economy on the world economy in the linkage with the global economy, and enhance the radiation and influence of China’s foreign trade.

　　Six, grasp the development trend of international trade environment security, strengthen international cooperation, establish and improve the international trade security system.

　　The impact of external shocks such as Sino-US trade friction, COVID-19 epidemic and Ukrainian crisis on international trade has aroused great concern of the international community on trade security. In order to maintain the global hegemonic position and ensure economic security, the United States, based on western democratic values, forced the implementation of friendly shore outsourcing, offshore outsourcing, decoupling and breaking the chain, and reshaped the global value chain; The European Commission issued the European Economic Security Strategy, and formulated a policy framework to safeguard the EU’s economic security, to guard against supply chain and energy security risks, key infrastructure and network security risks, and technology leakage risks. Japan adopted the Law on Promoting Economic Security to strengthen the security of key products and important materials supply chain and strengthen the review of key infrastructure. Industrial chain supply chain security, data security, food security, energy security, science and technology security, financial security, biological security, the unprecedented changes in a hundred years have accelerated the evolution of the new trade environment, ensuring trade security has become the general trend of global trade development.

　　The General Secretary of the Supreme Leader pointed out that we should make overall plans for development and security, pay equal attention to development and security, and realize the benign interaction between high-quality development and high-level security. Trade security is the foundation and premise of building a strong trading country, and a strong trading country must first be safe. To cope with the changes in the external trade security environment and comprehensively enhance the security of China’s foreign trade, we must accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, realize the security and controllability of key industries, infrastructure, strategic resources, major science and technology, and firmly grasp the strategic initiative of coordinating national development and security in our own hands; It is necessary to improve the international trade security system, strengthen the trade security risk early warning, prevention and control mechanism and capacity building, improve the modern export control system, industrial injury early warning system and foreign investment national security review system, strengthen the protection of overseas interests and risk early warning, safe and efficient trade risk management, and establish a trade security governance system with supply chain security as the core; It is necessary to strengthen international cooperation, give full play to the important role of international trade in maintaining peace and security, safeguard the authority of the rules-based multilateral trading system, strengthen regional and cross-regional cooperation, resist the risks that may be brought about by trade concentration through trade diversification, and promote world peace and development through open cooperation and interconnection.

　　(Author: national academy of economic strategy researcher)

　　Editor in charge: Sun Jian