Should the elderly bus card be disabled in the morning rush hour？ Big data shows unexpected results.
Keywords: pension card, big data, commuting peak
The topic of "the elderly crowd the morning and evening rush hours" and "should the bus card for the elderly be disabled in the morning rush hours" will be on the hot search every three to five times.
A few days ago, a news that "Nanjing morning peak forbids to brush old-age cards" that exploded the circle of friends in Nanjing was finally confirmed as misinformation.
It can be seen that the public has a deep negative impression on the elderly to take public transportation for free in the morning rush hour.
However, Beijing has implemented the "Beijing Connect — Hundreds of millions of big data formed by the old-age disability card show that
Free bus ride for the elderly not only does not put pressure on the peak commuting hours of young people, but effectively supplements the bus capacity during the low commuting hours.
Old people over 60 take public transportation for free.
It is estimated that 4.3 million cards will be issued by the end of the year.
It is understood that Beijing Municipal Traffic Card Company has issued and accepted prepaid cards in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province, and has issued more than 100 million cards, which are widely used in public transportation, municipal administration, small consumption, mobile payment and other fields. Among them, the field of municipal services includes the much-watched "Beijing Tong-Pension Card for the Disabled", which allows the elderly to take public transportation and visit the park for free. The card is mainly physical card now, and will gradually transition to virtual card and wearable device in the future.
The "card for the aged and the disabled" is an identity certificate for the elderly in Beijing to enjoy social preferential treatment, social welfare, social services and other policies and services. It is an intelligent card integrating financial debit, allowance and subsidy distribution, municipal traffic card and other functions. The Beijing Municipal Civil Affairs Bureau entrusts banks to make and issue it for eligible elderly people through government procurement. The use and management of the card are in accordance with the "Beijing Tong — Measures for the administration of old-age disability cards.
Beijing Tong — The old-age disability card was fully launched on January 1, 2017, and it was initially only for the elderly over 65 years old. In November 2018, the original interim measures were revised, and the "Beijing Tong — The Measures for the Administration of Old-age Disabled Card has removed the age limit of 65 years old who can take public transportation and visit parks and scenic spots for free. Old people who are registered in this city at the age of 60 or above and who have applied for residence permits can enjoy preferential treatment in public transportation, parks and scenic spots with the old-age disabled card.
The scope of free rides includes bus operating lines in Beijing except for tourist sightseeing lines, customized buses and other diversified service lines, and fees are paid according to the regulations on public transport management when leaving the city.
Free visit to parks and scenic spots includes parks and scenic spots mainly invested and managed by municipal and district governments, including the Summer Palace, Tiantan Park, Beihai Park, Zhongshan Park, Jingshan Park, Xiangshan Park, Beijing Zoo, Beijing Botanical Garden, Taoranting Park, Zizhuyuan Park and yuyuantan park, with 11 in total. National legal holidays and large-scale activities shall be implemented according to the relevant management regulations of preferential places. When visiting parks and scenic spots, elderly people with cards must swipe their cards in parks equipped with credit card equipment; In parks and scenic spots without credit card equipment, enter the park according to the management requirements of each park and scenic spot.
From January 1, 2019, the Beijing Municipal Civil Affairs Bureau fully launched the old-age disability card for the elderly over 60 years old in the city. It is noteworthy that the Beijing Municipal Civil Affairs Bureau started the project of reforming the audit process of the old-age disability card, docked with the Beijing Municipal Civil Affairs Bureau the stock data of the elderly aged 58-60 who did not apply for the old-age disability card, and established the pre-audit customer information database of the old-age disability card. With the project put into production, the approval period of the old-age disability card was shortened by 5-15 working days. By the end of March 2019, the total number of cards for the aged and disabled in the city had exceeded 4 million, and it is estimated that the number of cards issued in the city will exceed 4.3 million by the end of 2019.
Old people generally travel after 9 am.
Commuting trough supplements public transport capacity
The Beijing Youth Daily reporter learned from the Beijing Municipal Traffic Card Company that the relevant data of the elderly using the "old-age and disabled card" can be followed up every day, and can be updated every 15 minutes at the earliest. At present, there are nearly 700 million pieces of behavioral data of the elderly that can be used for calculation in Beijing. Based on this, we can analyze the travel trend of the elderly, the travel density with the time axis every day, and the specific situation of getting on and off the bus and visiting the park.
The function of these big data is not only that, but also promotes the expansion of the population covered by the preferential treatment policy for the elderly and the disabled. It is understood that when the old-age disability card was first issued in 2017, it was a decision made by the government department based on experience. By 2018, with more than one year of experience accumulation and data foundation, whether the population studying preferential policies can be extended to the elderly over 60 years old, it has the conditions to make decisions with data drive.
When studying whether to expand the scope of issuing cards, we need to consider three issues. First, can the public transport capacity meet the requirements? Second, even if the overall transportation capacity can be achieved, is there a superposition between the peaks and valleys of the elderly and the commuting trips of young people? Third, there are some specific lines that need special treatment. In terms of public transportation, it is proposed that more than a dozen lines are saturated and no new and special burdens can be added.
At that time, the old-age disability card has formed 200 million to 300 million pieces of data. From the data point of view, after the calculation of public transport capacity, the total transport capacity is no problem, and commuters have obvious peaks and valleys every day, while the travel trend of the elderly is relatively flat, with no typical peaks and valleys, and the early peak of commuting is between 7: 30 and 8: 00, and it drops obviously after 8: 00, while the elderly basically travel after 9: 00, without obvious superposition effect. At the same time, the elderly supplement the public transport capacity during the low commuting period, which means reducing the waste of resources caused by empty driving and stopping of buses and making up for the structural design defects of public transport capacity.
With the above data base, the description of the line characteristics, artificial judgment and the decision of the government management department, Beijing finally made a decision to expand the number of card issuers. This has also become the first case of data-driven decision-making in this city.
In addition, the reporter learned that the big data of the old-age disability card can also study the travel situation of the elderly in a specific area from the time dimension, the spatial dimension and the transportation dimension of the elderly, and study the relationship between the facilities for the elderly and the travel radius of the elderly, helping to rationally plan and lay out the routes and stations of public transportation.
The data shows that the main destination of the elderly from their place of residence is the park, but the nearest park is not the most popular. Instead, they like to take public transportation to parks far away from their place of residence, such as Xiangshan and Summer Palace. There are still many elderly people who like to go to Xinfadi to buy food, and even often go to Xinfadi from 50 to 60 kilometers away. According to analysis, buying food is on the one hand, and many elderly people regard it as exercise.
Text/reporter Chen Si